Crude oil output Russia, energy rose

OPEC oil-producing countries reach a production agreement for the first time in 8 years, will be launched in January next year, oil prices are affected by this incentive, rising to a band high, not only oil revenues are expected to increase Russia stock market first reaction yields positive, rallying nearly 10% for nearly a month.

Despite the United States poised to shale oil, but still can not make up OPEC production number, trends in global crude oil supply and demand balance and future oil prices plummet, energy and Russia equity fund benefiting. OPEC crude oil production will be reduced by 1.2 million barrels a day next year, resolutions to 32.5 million barrels, which is not only conducive to oil prices, the fiscal deterioration in oil-producing countries can bring significant injections. Under the impact of low oil prices, OPEC's top five oil-producing this year's fiscal imbalance, the deficit rising proportion of GDP more, according to the consulting firm Wood Mackenzie report, to make the top five oil-producing countries to return to fiscal balance, at least back to 85 dollars a barrel in oil prices.

Although to reach $85 a barrel in the short term is unlikely, but if the production to maintain oil prices at US $60 a barrel in the first half of next year, national income is expected to increase. In addition to the OPEC output reduction agreement reached, non-OPEC countries said it would reduce the production of 600,000 barrels a day, non-OPEC output is the largest in Russia will be reduced by 300,000 barrels a day.

Production under favorable oil prices, even if the United States intends to take advantage of the shale oil industry output, but its production estimates, half a year's total production of about 522,000 barrels, far below the OPEC and non-OPEC total production of 1.8 million barrels.

From the supply side, OPEC and other countries cut production, even though the United States commercial production of shale oil full, half a year supply of crude oil will fall from a demand-side view, in China, Japan and the United Kingdom and the United States has been preparing for the implementation of fiscal policy, the global economy is expected to increase in demand, oversupply of crude degree will help oil prices upward.

In the worst case, if compliance with cuts by OPEC Member States, supply and demand of crude oil next year with the United States Department of energy originally expected, prices still rose 0.4 standard deviation space, per barrel of Brent crude oil prices in the first half of next year is expected to rise to $63, the potential gains of more than 20%. Price US $60 per barrel in the first half of next year, United States producers of crude oil profits are expected to increase by 15.6 billion dollars, assuming that energy producers production increased to 522,000 barrels a day, would make a profit is expected to be an additional increase of $3.27 billion, under the corporate profits are expected to substantially exceed estimates, energy stocks having objections. Russia, Trump was elected United States President, is expected to ease us-Russian relations, Russia stock market has ushered in a wave of increases, but now rising oil prices will become Russia stock market another push, recommended a more active investors can be configured amount Russia equity fund.